On June 5, gold prices fell more than 1% as the dollar stabilized ahead of US employment data due later this week, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s rate strategy. Oil prices also dropped more than $1, marking the fifth consecutive day of decline and setting a new four-month low.
Gold
Spot gold is currently trading at around $2328.13 per ounce in narrow fluctuations. The dollar index stabilized after falling to its lowest point since mid-April, making gold more expensive for overseas buyers.
Investors are now waiting for Friday’s US non-farm payroll data to clarify the outlook for rate cuts. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.
Analysts suggest that the overall decline in commodities, led by oil, may have contributed to bearish sentiment in precious metals. However, after the U.S. data was released overnight, market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September increased, helping gold rebound from $2315 to above the $2320 level, closing at $2326.62 per ounce on Tuesday.
Gold Technical Analysis:
Yesterday, gold did not continue its rebound. Instead, it fluctuated and faced pressure at the $2350 level during the Asian and European sessions, leading to a downward move. In the afternoon, it further broke through the $2340 level, weakening.
In the evening U.S. session, gold attempted a second rebound but faced resistance at $2337, continuing to fall and closing lower. The daily K-line chart shows a bearish engulfing pattern, with prices weakly fluctuating downwards around the $2350 level. The short-term top is established around the $2350-$2360 area, and today’s strategy remains focused on shorting rebounds.
Today’s Focus:
- Short-term strategy: Maintain the strategy of shorting rebounds.
- Resistance: $2350-$2353
- Support: $2341-$2337
Oil
International oil prices are hovering at low levels, with WTI crude currently trading around $73.12 per barrel. On Tuesday, oil prices fell more than $1, marking the fifth consecutive day of decline and hitting a new four-month low. This decline comes amid signs of weakening global demand and skepticism over OPEC+’s decision to increase supply later this year.
The OPEC+ alliance, comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies including Russia, agreed on Sunday to extend most production cuts until the end of 2025 but left room for eight member countries to gradually lift voluntary cuts starting in October.
Oil Technical Analysis:
Oil prices continued their recent weak downward trend, with persistent declines during the Asian and European sessions. In the evening U.S. session, oil prices were suppressed, fluctuating below the $73.5 level, closing at the day’s low.
The overall price trend remains bearish, with a focus on the resistance around $73.7-$73.9. Intraday rebounds are expected to face resistance at this level, with the main trend remaining downward. The short-term bearish threshold is at $74.5.
Today’s Focus:
- Short-term strategy: Maintain the trend-following strategy.
- Resistance: $73.7-$73.9
- Support: $74.5
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